Systematic Bias

Erin underwent an eyewall replacement cycle overnight, knocking it down to a Category Three, but reintensification is expected next 24 hours

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Erin’s path has continued to defy NHC forecasts, jogging south of due west for several hours overnight Saturday night as it remained south of most reliable guidance. Meanwhile, after intensifying at a rate equaled by just a handful Atlantic tropical cyclones in the past 75 years (85 mph in 24 hours!), Erin underwent an eyewall replacement cycle Saturday night, dropping it down to a high-end Category 3 hurricane with peak winds of 125 mph.